According to the Chinese calendar, 2011 will be the Year of the Rabbit. We can therefore look forward to a new year that is more peaceful than 2010, reflecting the characteristics of the rabbit: home-loving, reserved, trustworthy, stylish and serene. Renowned trendwatcher Adjiedj Bakas, author of several bestselling books, including Beyond the Crisis (number 1 at Amazon) and World Megatrends anticipates some key trends for the the new year and the ways in which national economies could benefit from them.
Towards more Asian investment abroad and greater Asian consumption of European products
2010 has been a difficult year for most European countries but in most Asian countries economic growth has continued. Consumption of European products with strong brand names such as Gucci, Volkswagen, and several brands of whiskies, remained strong.
The middle classes of the emerging economies in Asia and Latin America are consuming more food, including increasing amounts of meat and fish, yet food is becoming increasingly scarce and more expensive. As a result, businesses providing (export or import) luxury food products, and fish farms and associated sectors will all perform well in 2011 and into the future.
With the world population growing by 6 million people each month, countries that invest in food production, food logistics and distribution, fish farming, and other innovative means of food production will prosper.
The success of a small country such as the Netherlands is a good example. The Netherlands has become one of the main food producers in the world as a result of the intelligent use of modern farming techniques and its enormous reserves of fresh water. European countries have well-educated populations and their abilities should be used in developing programs for modern food production. Hedge fund investments, sovereign wealth funds, and private investors could be attracted to support this. There is more than enough money in the world, you just need to know how to attract it.
Towards new economic collectives, multiple loyalties and state capitalism
In 2011 we will see a rise in the trend towards multiple loyalties. Migration is increasing again and “portable nationalism” is a growing trend that can have financial benefits for both receiving and sending nations.
People living abroad continue to feel very attached to their homeland. China and India have both utilized this attachment in developing their economies. In the early 1970s China was poorer than Somalia; then the Chinese government introduced an investment scheme for Chinese abroad. They could invest part of their savings in China, at attractive rates, with a tax holiday. The result was that China accumulated the first billions needed to finance the country’s economic growth. India has a similar system for Indians abroad.
Another trend is the rise of state capitalism: states which create sovereign wealth funds which act as investment vehicles. Singapore has one, as do China and Norway. The Danish SWF invests in buying shares in international airports such as Mexico City and Kuala Lumpur, earning a lot of money that benefits Denmark.
Other countries could bank on both of these trends. Why not create a sovereign wealth fund financed by nationals resident abroad? This would enable them to invest part of their savings, with a tax holiday, in an innovative new fund benefiting both themselves and their homeland.
Towards a rise in spiritual tourism and entertainment in the economy of happiness
The new year will see a growth in spirituality. The “Hodgepodge God” will become more popular (see my book, The Future of Faith). This God combines aspects of the Christian one and influences from other religions, drawing on reincarnation, astrology and pre-Christian European religious forces such as the Celtic traditions.
Spiritual tourism will increase, and therefore the promotion of Celtic sites might pay off. In recent years, 200 million euros has been invested in Santiago de Compostella on new tourist accommodation because millions of people every year are undertaking the pilgrimage to this holy place. Ireland has many spiritual Celtic sites that it could bank on if it decided to tap into this trend.
In addition the rise in the number of retirees will create an increasing hunger for entertainment. Ireland could again benefit from this trend by, for example, reviving Irish music (which was a great export product until recently) and dance.
It is even better if entertainment or relaxation can be mixed with spirituality. In an overcrowded world silence is becoming unique and is now something people will pay for, as can be seen in Iceland. There is a tourism segment which is willing to pay for tourism in silence, in lonely and isolated places, and experiences such as retreats.
We are now entering the post-material economy or the economy of happiness. All of these trends are part of this transition.
These three trends for 2011 can be used to refresh global economies. The future starts now, make the most of it!
